This weekend we have the biggest competition we have ever seen for DraftKings MMA. We have a $10 entrance contest with $300,000 in total prizes, and $100,000 of the to 1st place. I never believed we’d see a 6-figure 1st place trophy for MMA but that I was incorrect and that I can’t wait to chase it. Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov will be the biggest fight in UFC history and DraftKings just made it even bigger for us DFS players. We are down to 12-fights so we could see a range of ties for that 1st place prize, so try to be different with your lineups someplace, or leave salary on the table to differ in this manner. With that said, here are a few plays I enjoy this weekend along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Luque is the”safest” play on the card with a good margin in his -900 gaming lineup. I love plugging in these high likelihood guys in cash so I can lock a triumph in there and worry about finding 3 other wins out of my 5 additional areas. We usually only need 4 wins in cash games to win against the money line, so that’s what I shoot for in these 50/50 or double up games. Luque has been very remarkable in his UFC run and he has overcome some pretty big names. On paper, this is only one of his simplest matches yet. In addition, he has large time upside with his completing possible. He’s got an ITD line of -270, therefore that I believe we could have 100+ points within this win. He is a good play in most formats, however he will be chalky in tournaments, so that’s why he is my money play of this week instead.
GPP drama of this week — Alexander Volkov ($8,700)
Heavyweights are almost always good to aim in GPPs since it just takes 1 shot with a lot of those guys. I think this is a great matchup for Volkov and he’s priced at $8.7k weekly. If he can find a 1st round KO at the price, he will likely be on the winning LU. Same is true for Lewis, so he is a solid GPP play too. However, my choice to win will be Volkov and I like his cost. I believe a few men priced above him this week will be much higher owned, therefore we could find a heavyweight favored at lesser ownership . Fight Does Not Go To Decision is currently lined at -190, so this is a good GPP fight to target over all. If you enjoy the Black Beast to get the W, then he’s a good fighter to throw on your GPP LUs.
Underdog drama of the week — Tony Martin ($7,400)
This is the best odds worth on the card. Presently, Laflare is lined at -135 and Tony Martin is lined at +115. However, on DraftKings Laflare is priced $1,400 greater than Martin. I love looking for line value like that which alone puts Martin in play in all formats. Martin also has got the better odds to finish this fight ITD, so that’s another plus with him. I like the floor for Martin in cash games also because Laflare isn’t very likely to finish if he wins. So, at $7.4k, we could afford a reduction from Martin and take the things he could rack up in 15-minutes.
Fade of this week — Sergio Pettis ($8,600)
Sergio Pettis could get the win here. But he is going to have to acquire a finish to repay his $8.6k price . Sergio won’t be going for any takedowns in this battle, and he does not strike at a high enough speed for him to get 10x of the $8.6k. Sergio will be the better fighter on the feet, but when he does not get a finish he then probably only scores 60-70 points in a win. Those low scores do not cut it at $8.6k. There are just better plays points each dollar and those are the guys I’ll be targeting. Sergio is a strong fade if you’re making 20 or less lineups this weekend.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
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