This weekend, we have a 12-fight card with two title struggles in Toronto, Canada. We are back to having PPV sized contests on DraftKings this week and there are some strong GPPs to pursue this week. The most important GPP is a $10 entrance using $25,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favorite contests to pursue so I’ll be taking some shots at that. Other than that, I will stick to my 3-entry maximum & single entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs through the week and that I will find a fantastic quantity of play in cash games. With that said, here are a few plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ may be the easiest cash game punt of time in $6.8k. The lineup for Fight Goes To Decision is currently -195 and if we’re getting 5-rounds from JJ with all the striking volume she puts out then we’ve got a good floor there also and it doesn’t matter whether she wins or loses. At that cost she lets you pay up for a few heavy favorites and if we could get 4 additional areas to win with a ~40-point reduction from JJ within our lineup then we’ll be sitting very pretty in our cash games this weekend.
GPP play of this week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is presently lined at -495 for this battle. The most probable outcome is that someone in this fight gets knocked out in 15-minutes. With that knockout likely comes at one 10-point knock down. If that can be from the 1st round, then you’re currently at 100-points even if it’s just the 1st punch/kick of the night. At $8.8k that is more than sufficient to give you a chance at 1st place in a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this fight and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so that he can’t have much time in the match left. I think we function together with the favorite here and toss into our GPP lineups and await the fireworks.
Underdog drama of this week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week due to his wrestling/grappling potential. In addition, I think he is a underdog here. Lopez lost his last 2 fights by knockout, so that is what I would be worried about most with him Brad Katona is most likely the better striker of the two but he’s never knocked anybody out, so I think we have a solid floor here at $7.3k even if this struggle does stay standing because I do not watch Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is most likely the better wrestler of both though and I believe he lands multiple takedowns in this battle and may win a decision using a wrestling-heavy game program. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes in a 57 percent accuracy, and if he is becoming bogged up on the toes I am certain that he is going to be going for much more than this. At $7.3k I believe Lopez makes for a solid play in most formats and that I believe he gets a split decision win here as the road underdog.
Fade of the week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I’m fading a couple of fighters this week , but the individual I never even considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It’s not that I don’t think she could win, since she for certain can, and I think she does. However, I don’t see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a win. I believe we would require a complete from her in this fight to receive 10x that salary and I think that is very unlikely to take place. Or, she’ll need FightMetric to rely all her screams as significant strikes. The most Chookagian has scored in a UFC fight so far in her profession is 83 DK points and that has been contrary to Irene Aldana who sets a much higher rate than Jessica Eye does. Even if she could get 83-points here afterward still wouldn’t be enough here to place her in the winning lineup at her 8.7k price label. I think if you are earning 20 or less lineups this Saturday you may safely fade Chookagian and if she’s a win it should not hurt much.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my select forecasts, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
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